No Near End of Political mess In Pakistan
By Samuel Baid
The Army seems to be cooking political khichri in the messy Kitchen of Pakistan. It first raised Imran Khan to the Prime Minister’s post. Then a year before he could complete his term, he was thrown out through opposition’s no-confidence vote with the Army’s backing. The opposition called the ‘Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM)’ was helped to form a coalition Government under Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). The PDM has begun cracking as the elections draw near. Amid this, a new party called Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) has sprouted. The father of IPP is Imran’s former friend and notorious sugar mafia Jahangir Tareen. The Army is said to be behind this party too.
In the next elections (if they really happen), pollsters will find it difficult to make any predictions because of unclear identities of political parties and the Army’s choice. Currently the parties are: (I)Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which is supposed to have good influence in Pakistan’s most important province, Punjab. His ex-friend Jahangir Tareen has also a great influence in this province. What is puzzling here is that, it is not known how serious is the Imran-Tareen rift. It is notable here that after this rift became public, Imran inducted a cousin of Tareen in his Cabinet; keeping the door open for reconciliation with Tareen. Also, Tareen’s IPP is mainly made up of Imran’s former supporters. This mean if the Army decides (on whatever conditions), we cannot rule out a PTI-IPP link up, possibly minus Imran. There were suggestions of in-house change when Imran was facing opposition’s onslaught. In other words, an Imran less PTI is not impossible. But there are other signals, too which dim the above scenario. This is the future of the Army supported present coalition government. The PDM conglomeration stands on two feet of clay with the Army’s support. These two feet are Nawaz Muslim League (now headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif) and the Pakistan People Party (PPP). Corruption and inefficiency have eroded people’s confidence in them. After the 1980s, these two parties gained tremendous political strength not because of their work but because of shameless and merciless loot of their country. PPP leader Asif Zardari did not bother about his country when nick named “Mr 10 percent”.
Between 1988 and 2017, the PPP and the Muslim League (N) ruled Pakistan alternatively and when in power punished each other for corruption. Out of power, they can pretend bonhomie. For example, when they were in exile in London, then chairperson of the PPP, Benazir Bhutto and then president of the Muslim League (N) Nawaz Sharif signed a charter of democracy, vowing to keep aloof from the Army. Army chief Gen. Parvez Musharraf, who overthrew Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Government in October 1999, repeatedly said he would not allow these two corrupt leaders to return to Pakistan. But ultimately, he signed an NRO (National Reconciliation Order) to allow them to return home and play a part in its political life.
Back home, Benazir was assassinated in 2007 and in the general elections that followed in 2008, the PPP won and Asif Ali Zardari became country’s President. Zardari was reluctant to reinstate Supreme Court judge whom Musharaf had sacked. Nawaz Sharif came out in favour of the judges against the PPP. The charter of Democracy bonhomie broke and the PPP and Muslim League (N) parted company. The formation of PDM was inspired by Nawaz Sharif from London to oust Imran from power. First, he emboldened the opposition against the Army. But Army was not the target of the PDM. The target was Imran’s PTI Government. The Army supported the PDM’s no-confidence motion against Imran’s government and ousted it in April 2022.
Ousted Imran is in trouble-facing about 100 cases. But ironically Imran’s trouble are weakening the unity of the PDM as its members are getting over-confident. The PPP wants to recapture Punjab in the coming elections challenging Muslim League (N) which it thinks has become weak there. The PPP is condemning the shehbaz Sharif’s government for causing economic mess in the country.
While the PDM is showing signs of cracks, the Army is reportedly toying with the idea of making present Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari next Prime Minister. His father Zardari will surely back it. It was on his insistence that Bilawal was made Foreign Minister. If the Army goes ahead with this reported idea, the PDM will certainly break apart now that the Muslim League (N) has made arrangements for the home return for Nawaz from London to become Pakistan’s Prime Minister a fourth time.
Note: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinion of the author.